TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON PATIENT ATTENDANCE

ABSTRACT

The aim of this project is to examine the trend at which patients attends the hospital over the period of study. The study therefore, shows the usefulness of statistics to medicine and hence advice had always been sought by medical and health administrators from the Department of Statistics on the analysis and interpretation of medical data. The work is presented in five chapters. The first chapter being the introduction, the second chapter is the review of related literature where views of various writers on the topic concerned were analyzed.Chapter three is the research methodology, it examine the various research methods and procedure used in the data collection, it also highlight the techniques for data collections, where the historical and survey research method were adopted, all the data collected were presented and analysed in chapter four. Finally, chapter five summaries the whole research work, conclusion were drawn from the study and recommendation on how to improve health care delivery to the people.

CHAPTER ONE

1.1  INTRODUCTION

University of Uyo Teaching Hospital since its inception in 1994 has received considerable amount of people, for treatment medical advice, family planning and a host of other reason. Different categories of people have patronized the hospital for its efficiency. It is therefore in the best interest of the researcher to use his or her knowledge of statistic application is the attendance of ill health (patients) attending the hospital. It does not and here the research as will look forward to classifying, arranging and recording the monthly, quarterly, annual, bi-annual attendance of patients in the hospital. In an attempt to introduce efficient methods and routine towards comparing the total attendance of, in and out patient this in general comprises of male, female and children patient attending the hospital.

To crown it all, it shall be in form of data (secondary, primary data) depending on the set of people wishing to use it and purpose or criterion behind using the research, the data collected will be analysis organized, summarized and compiled. Since hospital patronage is consistent and continuous process, it will be an efficient data collection, centres and will promote statistical application and voluminous data i.e. moving average and time series analysis.

1.2    OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1.  To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ attendance.

2.  To forecast the patient attendance by using linear trend method.

3.  To forecast for patient attendance using the fitted trend equation from 2008 to 2012.

1.3    SCOPE AND LIMITATION

This research will limit it analysis on the comparison of the attendance of patient. (IN and OUT) based on secondary data collected from the hospital Hajiya Gambo Sawaba General Hospital Zaria from (1998 to 2007).

1.4    HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF SOURCE OF DATA

The hospital was established and commissioned by His Excellency the Governor of Kano State Late Alaji Audu Bako in 1975. The hospital is directly under Kaduna State Ministry of Health.

VARIOUS DEPARTMENT OF THE HOSPITAL

The hospital consists of nine (9) departments. The various departments include:

Medical Department: The Medical Director is the overall boss of the hospital. He is only answerable to the Kaduna State Commissioner of Health. He is in charge of all medical cases.

Administration Department: Hospital secretary is the head of this department. He heads all the administrative staff of various departments of the hospital and all heads of department are under him and answerable them, as every head administered on his behalf.

Nursing Service Department: The nursing service department is in charge with central of nurses, their posting, their duty roster, their shifting training to other post basic courses.

Medical Record Department: This department deals with keeping record and collection of data.

Laboratory: Technologist works in the laboratory and for the operation of laboratories equipment. 

Pharmacy Department: The pharmaceutical department is in charge with the supply of drugs, drugs custody, drug protection and storage etc.

Radiology Department: The radiology is in charge with x-ray e.g. chinstraps etc.

Ophthalmology Department: Ophthalmology department is in charge with all cases of eye, its treatment etc.

E.N.T Department: This department is in charge with all cases of ear.