TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA (1988-2011)

ABSTRACT

This project is based on time series analysis of yearly sales of petroleum at Balewa fuel station Nigeria limited, Oshogbo, Osun State from 1988-2011. Various trend models of time series analysis were discussed with a view of showing understanding to the appropriate method to be used for forecasts. The time plot of yearly sales of petroleum shows that, there is low sales of petroleum within year 1994 and higher sales of petroleum occur during year 2011. Moreover, evidence from trend analysis shows that the quadratic model trend gives the best model out of all the models considered. This is due to the model which has the least Mean Absolute Deviation. The study adopted quadratic trend model, which was concluded that quadratic model was the best model that best fit the data and was used to forecast yearly sales of petroleum from year 1998 to 2023.