A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL MARKET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL MARKET AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

ABSTRACT

This research work is aimed at establishing and testing for existing relationship between the Nigerian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the indicators of the Nigerian Stock Market. Market capitalization and All Share Price Index are used as proxies for stock market indicators. Annual data set from 1985 to 2014 are used in the research work. The relationship is explored both in the general sense using multiple linear regression analysis and in the period-based (period of global financial crisis and period of no global financial crisis) using dummy regression analysis. Detailed analysis of the data using the multiple linear regression analysis revealed a strong significant multiple linear relationship among the response and the predictor variables with a coefficient of multiple determination, R2 of about 0.91 which explains about 93% of the total variations in the response variable. The result from the dummy regression analysis shows even a stronger linear relationship among the predictor variables and the response variables with R2 of about 0.93 which explains about 93% of the total variation in the response variable Y. The coefficient of the dummy variable is significantly different from zero which point to the need to analyze the variables based on the two economic period. It also respresent the average decrease in the response variables Y as a result of the global financial crisis given the indicators of the Nigerian stock market.